For those who said SIRI was a great stock pick

[Hogg]

What a GREAT stock this is.....note the cost of sales - a 17.2% increase in cost to boost sales 16.25%.......but wait, there's more!

A nice 277% boost in R&D spending along with a 75MM non-recurring charge.....well well well, what a great company. Nothing like decreasing shareholder equity another 41.1MM quarter-on-quarter.

Forgive my sarcasm but I hope that no one makes investment decisions off of someone's 'hot stock tip' on a message board. This company clearly sucks and it would be wise to steer clear of this thing until they turn it around.....and buy back some shares too.....this is a company that has never earned a buck on core earnings in its life and has a billion shares on the street. nothing divided by one billion is NOTHING.



View: Annual Data | Quarterly Data All numbers in thousands
PERIOD ENDING 31-Dec-03 30-Sep-03 30-Jun-03 31-Mar-03
Total Revenue 4,950 4,258 2,073 1,591
Cost of Revenue 20,764 17,720 31,647 16,643

Gross Profit (15,814) (13,462) (29,574) (15,052)

Operating Expenses
Research Development 10,763 3,884 4,904 4,983
Selling General and Administrative (444) 62,475 51,857 54,993
Non Recurring 74,860 - - -
Others 24,124 23,666 23,463 24,100

Total Operating Expenses 109,303 - - -


Operating Income or Loss (125,117) (103,487) (109,798) (99,128)

Income from Continuing Operations
Total Other Income/Expenses Net 1,276 1,341 1,327 257,881
Earnings Before Interest And Taxes (123,841) (102,146) (108,471) 158,753
Interest Expense 23,937 4,543 3,365 18,665
Income Before Tax (147,778) (106,689) (111,836) 140,088
Income Tax Expense - - - -
Minority Interest - - - -

Net Income From Continuing Ops (147,778) (106,689) (111,836) 140,088

Non-recurring Events
Discontinued Operations - - - -
Extraordinary Items - - - -
Effect Of Accounting Changes - - - -
Other Items - - - -


Net Income (147,778) (106,689) (111,836) 140,088
Preferred Stock And Other Adjustments - - - (88,208)

Net Income Applicable To Common Shares ($147,778) ($106,689) ($111,836) $51,880

[Bob Smith]

As soon as I saw the thread title and author, I knew exactly what was in store.

[Hogg]

Originally Posted by Bob Smith

As soon as I saw the thread title and author, I knew exactly what was in store.

Somebody's gotta watch out for the brethren

[Bob Smith]

Looks like SIRI is down 25% since its high back in January.

[Hogg]

Originally Posted by Bob Smith

Looks like SIRI is down 25% since its high back in January.

Its not worth the ink to sign the stock certificate. Its not an attractive acquisition so they're either going to have to get their act together or go BK and someone will buy up their plant and property in bankruptcy court. XM cant make a run on them when their market cap sits at $ 3.2B

[cinnabar8521]

I said it was a great stock pick, and I'll stick my that when I posted it, I bought in in early dec and sold sometime around the first of the year, 100 % profit minus commision, sorry if it didn't work out well for you.

[Hogg]

Originally Posted by cinnabar8521

I said it was a great stock pick, and I'll stick my that when I posted it, I bought in in early dec and sold sometime around the first of the year, 100 % profit minus commision, sorry if it didn't work out well for you.

Woah....hold on a sec there sweetheart, there is a difference between a momentum trade opportunity and a good stock. Buying SIRI stock is essentially buying nothing.....if you are saying that you 'knew' the stock was going to increase in value because it was worth something, that is a lot different than guessing that it was going to rise because people dogpiled on to it. Playing the market sentiment game is the same as going to vegas - pure speculation and thus not considered an investment.

You did not buy future earnings or cash flows when you bought your shares, you did not buy a piece of a company that had a true intrinsic value, you made a bet. So if you want to consider yourself some type of oracle because you predicted the lemming-like surge in buying on SIRI, then hey, I'll agree to give you a pat on the back providing that you admit it was a speculation and not an investment.

I'm easy to get along with as long as we can call a spade a spade. I congratulate you on making a good profit but SIRI is, and will be for many years to come, a dogshit stock that a true investor would not touch with a ten foot pole. I see your side, do you see mine?

[cinnabar8521]

When I bought it, it was for my 4 year olds college fund I was planing on keeping long Term, I figured it would be a $25 dollar stock before he needed it, and I still believe it will be a $25 stock, but the profits were though and I had to take them.

[Hogg]

Originally Posted by cinnabar8521

When I bought it, it was for my 4 year olds college fund I was planing on keeping long Term, I figured it would be a $25 dollar stock before he needed it, and I still believe it will be a $25 stock, but the profits were though and I had to take them.

I certainly do not blame you for taking the profits but I question how you came to value the stock as being worth $ 25? Forgive me for being ignorant but I just do not understand how one could come to that conclusion except with but for scenarios. Are you aware of some future earnings estimates that the street is not? and when might it be worth $ 25? on what earnings multiple? on what relationship to shareholder equity? That is what I am trying to understand; why you believe it is going to be a $ 25 stock. SIRI would have to have enormous earnings growth to break even let alone force a $ 25/share market price....we are talking about a business that is highly leveraged .....total market cap of $ 3.2 billion yet the company loses $ 79MM on $ 12.8MM in revenue.......I just cant see it. They are in hock $ 680MM and if you're selling subscriptions at $ 12.99/mth assuming a 50% profit margin but not taking into account cost of sales, they'd have to sell 4.4 MM subscriptions to cover the principal on their LT debt....and that does not take into account interest. They have what, 100,000 subscribers now? I just do not see SIRI pulling a rabbit out of hat any time soon but then again, I've been duped before. Wall St. is funny in that regard......if one of SIRI's investment bankers speaks highly of the company in a report, there will likely be a surge in market price...but nobody on the street has much good to say about them right now....thats for sure. Now Wall Street, known for a century to be a bastion of thieves, bushwackers, and optimists, will not say a good word about SIRI even though they stand to make money on trades.....if a crook is too crooked for another crook's voucher, then what does that tell you?

I guess the point I am trying to make is, a guess is a guess....you could play the lottery and perhaps win with similar odds, but there is no way in hell you can tell me SIRI is a 'good stock' because you have no data to support your conclusion.....you are simply guessing that at some point, it will be worth $ 25/share. Thats fine, but at least let everybody know its a guess otherwise, some poor bastard on this board might think you know something and dump all his money in......and through some (not hard to fathom) negative press, SIRI might plummet back to a buck a share....leaving this poor bastard with 1/3 of his hard earned money.

That is just my opinion on stock picking and disclosure. I dont mind putting my own money on the line but I sure as hell do not want someone following me in and losing money because I made a bad call.

[Hogg]

Since we are talking about SIRI, I have made an observation on momentum trades and I can share with you the pattern that I see. SIRI's share price gain was purely momentum driven and followed a very simple pattern that I have witnessed time and time again.


It would seem feasible that one could look for issues $ 2 and under on nasdaq that have very low trading volume. Once these issues are found, one might buy 500-2000 shares of each and wait until the big traders select a new issue to play. The trading volume will explode, the issue will gain a couple of bucks, and then the big traders get out. Now after the big players get out, the guys that are learning the game will continue to play that issue for weeks on end...but the stock wont move much. Then the big guys will move on and attack another issue....the same way.....it is almost textbook from what I have observed......and then when they have ran up the share price enough, they will get out....and then the smaller fish will continue their nibbling for $ 0.05 swings. Mind you, a dogshit stock that has been momentum traded tends to retain higher daily volume after it is put in play....people riding the issue back and forth hoping for another good drive. Personally, I could not see maintaining a position in a stock that was subject to such risk.

I personally choose to buy on fundamentals and wait for future earning growth to increase the value of my holdings but others like to trade and it is certainly a viable opportunity for those who have the time and inclination. But mind you, trading is not investing and buying issues waiting for the big day traders to put heat on the market price is purely speculation.....much like playing against the house in vegas.

[cinnabar8521]

Well I'll have to apologize if anyone has taken my advice, cause I'm pretty clueless when it come to the market, as far as picking stocks, I'll go with a tip from someone I believe has a clue. then I'll check it out, I compared siri to xm, xm was a $4 stock a little over a year ago and now is a $27 dollar stock, then I went to a couple of eletronic stores and talked sat radia with some sales guys, they were ALL pushing siri over xm, so I believe siri will get their ($25), I know they are sending money like drunken sailers but you have too, remember there's only two players here and it's pretty much virgin market, as a consumer I think siri will surpass xm in the next couple of years. I may be all wrong on this but really does it matter.... it's people like me that drive a stock way past it's value, you just don't want to be holding the bag when the house of cards comes down.

[Hogg]

It sounds like you at least did 'some' research which is better than what a lot of people do...and you felt compelled to cap your profit at a modest level rather than to be greedy....another trait that may keep you out of harm's way.

[Bob Smith]

From my limited perspective, I think XM is going to smoke SIRI. IIRC, all GM vehicles either come with XM or have it as an option. Thats a huge market for XM, a few million cars a year. Siri is pretty much only through retailers.

[cinnabar8521]

Originally Posted by Bob Smith

From my limited perspective, I think XM is going to smoke SIRI. IIRC, all GM vehicles either come with XM or have it as an option. Thats a huge market for XM, a few million cars a year. Siri is pretty much only through retailers.

That's not true Bob siri is offered by several auto companys, I don't remember which ones I've been out of siri for a little while, but by your comment you would be surprised by how many companys offer siri, siri is spending some big coin to get noticed in the market, either way theres room for both to turn a profit, it's just not gonna be for a while.

[greyowl]

You guys should get a clue. Stay away from individual stocks, it's a mug's game. Instead, figure out your asset allocation and fill it up with a portfolio of index-based Exchange Traded Funds.